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Beijing has deployed its maritime law enforcement into the waters of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past remote Japanese territory as Beijing ramps up strains over the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

On Sunday, the China's maritime patrol stated that its ships carried out a “rights enforcement patrol” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Japan but also asserted as territory by Beijing.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 performed surveillance within the territorial waters of the Senkaku islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity undertaken by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” officials declared.

Diplomatic Spat

China and Japan have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the latest activity occur during an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, the Japanese official, told parliament that if Beijing assaults democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Japan.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a retraction from Takaichi.

Island's Stance

China claims the island as its sovereign land and intends to annex it under what it terms “reunification”. It has not ruled out the military option. The island's administration and citizens categorically refuse the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the current situation without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An attack or invasion by Beijing would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the United States and other partner nations including Tokyo, which has land just 68 miles from the island.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had observed 30 Chinese military aircraft, seven navy ships and one “official” ship, which was probably the coast guard, operating around the territory over the past 24 hours.

Official charts released showed up to multiple UAVs operating near the island and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go particularly close to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are occasional, but infrequent, and Beijing's defense operations in the island's ADIZ generally has been minimal in the past month.

Earlier this weekend, the ministry said China had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added the island had sent its own aircraft and ships to track the developments. Taiwan reports such Chinese patrols a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Tokyo has been experiencing increased strain from China since the Japanese official made her comments, with China’s consul general in the Japanese city prompting a formal protest from Tokyo by stating that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities stated that any Tokyo's involvement would be certain to collapse.

Warning for Citizens

On Friday, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

Adding to the tensions, China’s government on Sunday advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it characterized as an volatile safety situation.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were studying in Japan last year, according to official data. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial accused Takaichi of staging a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other nations, including the US, and could quickly spiral into a large-scale conflict with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The government of Taiwan says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the US.

Nevertheless, Beijing's governing party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “unavoidable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards Taiwan.